Teaching students about the meaning of economic statistics is very important, and there are always news stories that help making these lessons in statistics current. In my economics classes I try to focus more on the forward looking statistics (leading indicators) rather than the lagging indicators. Unemployment and GDP numbers are classic lagging indicators that show where the economy has been, this is because they are calculated and posted for previous months or quarters. These statistics are important and good for gauging the economy, but provide little insight into the future.
Other, and more obscure, economic statistics are better at giving an idea of the future. Consumer confidence is the classic leading indicator. Since 70% of economic spending is consumer based, how consumers choose to spend their money is an important part of seeing where the economy is going. The Free Exchange blog, from the Economist Magazine, has a chart and description of the bleak consumer confidence numbers that came last Friday. That connected with the core inflation show that we are a long time from a recovery.
Other statistics that point to the lack of recovery are the newest housing numbers from the National Association of Home Builders from the Free Exchange blog, which shows the NAHB index going back down to the lows of the recession ( and is again below the lows of the 1991 recession).
If that is not enough, there is the graph on Free Exchange showing how long it will take to close the job (employment) gap by comparing the current level of joblessness to the history of the past few decades. As the post makes clear, it could be five years to a decade before this gap is fully closed. It adds in the thought that the economy may not reach full employment before the next recession.
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